XLMedia (XLM)

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An online performance marketing company.

21-Nov-2017 – 163p – £333.1m – PER 14.5

Trading Update – EBITDA for the year ending 31 December 2017 to be materially ahead of expectations, PBT to be ahead of expectations albeit not to the same degree as EBITDA as a result of the effect of adverse currency exchange differences. Acquisition integration in-line with management expectations.

I hold and will continue to do so for now.

13-Mar-2018 – 192p – £423.1m – PER 16.3

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue up 33% to $137.6 million (2016: $103.6 million), PBT up 27% to $39.3m (2016: $31.0m), EPS up 25% to $0.15 (2016: $0.12) and Cashand short-term investments of $43.3m.

Doubled up on this one and sold half, continue to hold the remainder.

Subsequent note: I sold up my remaining holding here in May 2018 after a long overdue tidy up. My main reason for exit was the forecasts did not look so great, EPS -3% next year and +15% the year after.

11-Jun-2018 – 171p – £376.8m – PER 14.3

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Some regulatory impacts and uncertainties as well as some SEO underperformance. Expects lower Revenues and PBT.

I sold out here last month as forecasts were not looking so great, I suspect they may look a little worse now. I remain on the side-lines.

24-Jul-2018 – 105.25p – £231.9m – PER 9.79

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – In-line.

50% of it’s highs, having sold out in May (being 20% or so of it’s all time highs) I am still not attracted back in here.

24-Sep-2018 – 106p – £233.6m – PER 9.69

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – Everything down but on track to meet FY expectations.

Still not enough here to make me a buyer again, I remain Neutral – Although there is a probable re-rating due if (more like when, as they have a load of Cash) acquisitions are made.

17-Jan-2019 – 74p – £160m – PER 6.6

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – Lower Revenue of about $118 but EBITDA to be in-line.

Not enough in this update to change my stance from Neutral.

26-Feb-2019 – 78p – £169m – PER 6.8

Trading Update – Trading for 2019 started in-line with management’s expectations although operational and regulatory headwinds see Revenue adjusted down by about $30m, EBITDA to be down $6m – $7m.

Happy to stay well away from this for now.

26-Mar-2019 – 56p – £119m – PER 6

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue down -14.4%, Loss of -$9.9m, Dividend is down about 10%, Adjusted EPS down -9%, Cash up from $43.3m to $47.6m. Concentrating on higher margin business, to return to growth.

Still happy to stay away from this for now, see how that return to growth goes!

29-May-2019 – 51p – £106m – PER 5

AGM Statement – Business continues in-line with management expectations, intention is to continue buy-back programme and progressive Dividend policy.

I will wait to see actuals even though the Yield is very tempting at almost 10%!

23-Sep-2019 – 75p – £155m – PER 7

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2019 – Revenue, Profit and EPS down, Interim Dividend up slightly, FY revised lower.

I personally don’t believe the yield (7%+) is worth the risk here.

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