UP Global Sourcing Holdings (UPGS)

UP Global Sourcing UPGS Logo

The owner, manager, designer and developer of an extensive range of value-focused consumer goods brands.

7-Nov-2017 – 88p – £71.2m – PER 11.4

Full Year Results To End July 2017 – Revenue up 39.1% to £110.0m (£79.0m last time), PBT up 18.7% to £7.4m (£6.3m last time), Net debt of £6.0m (£10.0m last time) – Full year dividend of 5.115p per share (3.32p last time). Although current trading is in-line, as previously announced “the Board therefore anticipates that revenue growth for FY 18 is unlikely. In addition, approximately £4-5m of FY 18’s revenue will now be recognised in FY 19 as a result of the move from FOB to landed arrangements with a key European customer”.

Attractive enough except for that sting in the tail – “Revenue growth for FY 18 is unlikely”.

12-Feb-2018 – 61p – £50.1m – PER 7.31

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End January 2018 – Revenue of £48.4m versus £68.1m last time. Also, some Revenue expected in H2 2018 will now be booked in 2019. Now expecting EBITDA of £6.0m to £7.0m which is below current market expectations.

Remains on my Avoid list for now.

30-Apr-2018 – 36.2p – £29.7m – PER 6.85

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End January 2018 – Revenue is as per the previous trading update (£48.4m versus £68.1m last time). However, it seems EBITDA is just £4.5m versus the £6.0m to £7.0m (which was already below current market expectations) mentioned in the same update. Trading for FY 2018 is currently in-line with management expectations.

Remains on my Avoid list.

6-Nov-2018 – 38.5p – £31.6m – PER 7.06

Results For The 12 Months To End July 2018 – Revenue down -20%, Underlying PBT down -47%, Net Debt doubled to £12.8m and the Dividend has been almost cut in half.

Even though the “FY 2019 Order book ahead of this time last year, with current trading in line with expectations” this remains on my Avoid list for now.

7-Jan-2019 – 39.5p – £32.4m – PER 6.92

Trading Update For FY 2019 – Stronger than expected Revenue growth and EBITDA to be above the market’s current expectations.

Will take this off my Avoid list now and keep an eye out for the actuals (the real profit).

11-Feb-2019 – 58p – £47.7m – PER 9.5

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End January 2019 – Underlying Revenue up 20.8%, current trading ahead of expectations.

Looks like there could be value here, will be keeping an eye out for Broker notes and revised forecasts.

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