StatPro (SOG)

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The cloud-based portfolio analysis and asset pricing services provider for the global asset management industry.

19-Oct-2017 – 151p – £97.7m

Q3 Trading Update For The 9 Months To End September 2017 – In-line expectations with this impressive statement – “In the 12 months to 30 September 2017, Group Annualised Recurring Revenue (“ARR”), increased by 40% to £52.9 million (September 2016: £37.9 million at constant currency), which includes the addition of ARR for Delta, the cloud-based risk and performance analytics service, acquired in May 2017”. And, the Chief Exec had this to add “We continue to make solid progress migrating our software to pure cloud-based delivery which will improve our operational efficiency and increase our margins. The integration of Delta is also going well.  Our roadmap to add the excellent and complementary Delta functionality into our flagship cloud platform, Revolution, has been well received by clients”.

On a PER of 22.6, perhaps worth a position here ahead of seeing the actual profits on this Revenue increase.

25-Jan-2018 – 147p – £96.4m – PER 20.6

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue £49.0m (up 30%) and Adjusted EBITDA £6.9m (up 35%). Net debt of £20.2m (2016: £10.1m) following investment in acquisitions. Confident of “further good progress in growing revenue and profits in 2018”.

Based on this increase in revenue which is impressive I would still like to see what the actual profits look not EBITDA.

14-Mar-2018 – 187p – £122.7m – PER 26.2

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue up 31% to £49.34m (2016: £37.55m), Adjusted PBT up 29% to £3.45m (2016: £2.68m), before acquisition, restructuring costs and other adjusting items of £6.80 million (2016: £12.80 million), Adjusted EPS up 74% to 5.9p (2016: 3.4p) and the FY Dividend is flat at 2.9p. This year has started in-line.

I simply cannot work out if this is expensive here or decent value. I favour the latter but for now will remain Neutral.

24-May-2018 – 180.5p – £118.5m – PER 23.9

AGM Statement And Trading Update – In-line with Fixed Income module to be launched in Q3 2018, as planned.

Forecasts look great here and any break above 190p would surely be positive, it’s on my Watchlist at that level (yes, to consider buying the break-out).

1-Aug-2018 – 170.5p – £112.1m – PER 21.4

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – Revenue up 22% to £27.24m (2017: £22.41m), PBT of £0.90m (2017: loss of -£1.54m), Interim Dividend maintained at 0.85p. Trading for the year is in-line with expectations.

I quite like this but will go Neutral for now as it looks about fairly priced here (to me).

25-Oct-2018 – 124.5p – £81.9m – PER 14.8

Q3 Trading Update – In-line.

Could well be value here now, I remain Neutral but will research this a little more this week.

23-May-2019 – 132p – £87m – PER 15

AGM Statement And Trading Update – FY remains in-line with expectations.

I reckon this is fairly valued (on a 2 Year view) around the 125p price level.

31-Jul-2019 – 142p – £94m – PER 16

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2019 – Revenue up 3.2% (recurring 98%), Loss of -£0.26m against a Profit of £0.81m last time, the Interim Dividend is unchanged at 0.85p. FY to be in-line.

If forecasts are met seems about fairly valued here. Based on the latest Broker note this morning, in my opinion, this looks way overvalued on a 1 Year view and undervalued on a 2 Year view – Net Debt is quite high, ROCE & Op Margin both low, a 10% upgrade to 2020E EPS would make it more interesting.

20-Sep-2019 – 149p – £98m – PER 18

Recommended Cash Offer – For 230p.

An excellent result for share holders.

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