Redde (REDD)

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Working predominantly with insurance companies, insurance brokers, prestige motor dealerships, and large national fleet owners the Group provides a range of accident management, incident management and legal services.

25-Oct-2017 – 158.75p – £487.8m

Trading Update For The Period 1 July to 24 October 2017 – The positive start to the year has continued – LFL Revenue is up as are Profits (no indication of how much).

Decent growth here with a huge 7% or so dividend – Although it’s not particularly well covered (<1). With no Cash in the bank this just seems weird enough for me to, rightly or wrongly, steer clear.

18-Dec-2017 – 166.75p – £506.9m – PER 14.1

Trading Update – “Sales continue to show an increase over the corresponding period last year reflecting continued growth in trading volumes and as a consequence, trading profits are ahead of the corresponding period last year.”

This has been ranging between 140p and 200p for a couple of years. Fundamentals seem OK and this is a positive enough update. Going to adjust my view here – It’s going on my Watchlist around that 140p level.

Subsequently revised Watchlist price, 150p.

1-Mar-2018 – 166.2p – £505.2m – PER 13.9

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End December 2017 – Revenues up 11.5% to £253.3m (2016: £227.1m), Adjusted PBT up 11.2% to £21.9m, Adjusted EPS is 6.12p (2016: 5.24p) and the Interim dividend will be 5.50p (2016: 5.00 pence). H2 has started well.

Will leave it on my Watchlist, at the 150p level.

Subsequent note: With little growth forecast here and the Market Cap moving to £550m+ I decided to move to Neutral here for now.

18-Dec-2018 – 167.2p – £511.6m – PER 11.9

Trading Update – Positive start continues, bottom line is profits are ahead of the corresponding period last year.

It’s fine being ahead of last year when you are supposed to show a 20% increase in Net Profit this year (according to Stockopedia). It would be more prudent to update on where it is in relation to expectations. The reason the latter is not reference is reason for caution (in my opinion).

27-Feb-2019 – 187p – £573.4m – PER 13.2

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue up 14.9%, Adjusted PBT up 7.6%, Debtor days up from 105 days to 109 days with Cash down from £24.4m to £11.6m, Net Debt £41.2m (£22.5m last time). Adjusted Basic EPS is up 6% and the Interim Dividend sees no change.

I prefer to remain on the side-lines here as they also warn of a tougher H2 (compared to last year). I will now cease coverage unless (until!) this slips back below my usual £500m Market Cap limit.

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