One of Europe’s leading suppliers of subscription-based vehicle tracking systems, software and services.
12-Jan-2018 – 359p – £170.8m – PER 26.8
Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue to be slightly ahead of market expectations, Profit expected to be moderately ahead. Look forward to 2018 with confidence.
Even slightly ahead results make this tricky for me to consider paying up for. I note 2016, 2017, 2018 (forecast) Revenue and Profit numbers are basically flat, EPS not much different. I just can’t pay a PER of 26.8 for this kind of “growth”.
26-Feb-2018 – 372p – £177.0m – PER 28.9
Audited Results For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue up by 5% to £24.5m (2016: £23.3m), PBT up 1% to £6.6m (2016: £6.5m), Diluted EPS down 4% to 12.21p (2016: 12.78p), Net Cash of £7.3m (£6.2m last time), Final Dividend of 11.1p proposed (2016: 9.0p).
OK the Net Cash is good (but nothing spectacular) and the Dividend increase is great (although it’s still only 3.5% or so). For me this is still on a crazy valuation given the actuals and forecasts. Maybe someone can point out what I’ve missed here!
27-Mar-2018 – 390p – £185.5m – PER 30.8
Trading Update – Looks like a bit of a warning that 2018 will be slightly worse than 2017 and 2019 will also be impacted.
Not sure this is going to go down well, I am remaining on the side-lines here.
2-Jul-2018 – 380p – £181.3m – PER 32.9
Trading Statement For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – Trading in-line, profits broadly in-line.
I remain on the side-lines here as, for me, this is just not good enough for a company on a PER of 30+.
25-Jul-2018 – 367p – £176.5m – PER 21.5
Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – Revenue up 7% and in-line to meet FY expectations.
I remain on the side-lines here, still a little baffled why people are paying up here on a PER of 20 (perhaps I have missed something).
4-Dec-2018 – 240p – £114.7m – PER 21.0
Trading Update For The 10 Months To End October 2018 – Adjusted EBITDA likely to be ahead of market expectations.
EBITDA (so what!) – Anyway, I still don’t see the value here on a PER of 20+, perhaps I am missing something.
10-Jan-2019 – 260p – £124.5m – PER 22.9
I still don’t get the PER of 20+ here, perhaps I continue to not see what other Buyers are seeing.
25-Feb-2019 – 243p – £116m – PER 21
Final Results For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue up 5%, PBT up 22%, Diluted EPS up 16% (14.19p), Net Cash down by about 10% and, strangely, the Dividend is down about the same amount.
I still don’t see value here or the reason for such a high rating – I still feel I am perhaps missing something, hopefully not!
26-Mar-2019 – 245p – £117m – PER 21
AGM Trading Statement – First 2 months, confident for FY.
I still don’t see value here, I just don’t like to see a forecast fall in EPS followed by a rise, especially if that rise means EPS is not hitting a new high.
19-Jun-2019 – 255p – £122m – PER 21.7
H1 Trading Update – Quite detailed but basically it seems FY will be in-line.
I still believe that means all round metrics lower than last year – So I will remain on the side-lines.
24-Jul-2019 – 284p – £136m – PER 24
Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2019 – Revenue down -3% with PBT down from £3.9m to £3.2m, Diluted EPS is down from 6.86p to 5.67p, Net Cash is up from £4.9m to £5.1m and an Interim Dividend of 2.4p is proposed. Expects to meet FY expectations.
All round metrics forecast as lower this year than last with only a slight rise the year after – I remain on the side-lines. Based on the latest Broker note this morning, 2019E and 2020E Revenue is set to be flat with EPS down -20% and then up 6% respectively.