Pendragon (PDG)

Pendragon PDG Logo

The largest and leading automotive online retailer in the UK.

23-Oct-2017 – 29p – £413.7m

Interim Management Statement 1 July to 20 October 2017 – A weird selection of dates and a really muddy update in my opinion. The basics seem to constitute a profit warning with PBT expected to be £60m.

I am not much interested here as the latest update is horribly structured and very unclear. But, anyway, let’s use my “have a guess at it” interpretation – Stockopedia has a Net Profit for 2017 of £60m so if we add 25% (assuming tax is about 20%), that gives us £75m PBT – So this is basically a profit warning and a 20% miss.

Subsequent note: The Chairman also stepped down on 23 October 2017 – For personal reasons!

13-Feb-2018 – 20.9p – £297.6m – PER 6.02

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2017 –  Well, someone was obviously paid well to make these as unclear as possible. Looks like Revenue up about 5% (£4,739m) with PBT down 10% (£65.3m). EPS is down a few percent to 3.7p. Expects 2018 to be in-line with expectations.

This latest update is probably a little better than expected. This is in real value territory here, the yield is a well covered 7% and the PER is just 6.  2 obvious downsides, the Net Debt and the industry in general. Get over those 2 and it’s not looking so bad. Actually Pendragon (PDG)Vertu Motors (VTU) and Cambria Automobiles (CAMB) all seem quite cheap at the moment. Tempting but perhaps not just yet.

7-Aug-2018 – 24.05p – £339.2m – PER 6.62

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – A little mixed but FY remains in-line.

Stills looks like a decent income play at 6%+ but the Net Debt and the industry being one I am just not interested in at the moment keeps me Neutral.

19-Oct-2018 – 26.35p – £369.9m – PER 7.01

Trading Update – UK New Car market data for September showed a decline of 20% in new car registrations and a similar trend has continued in October which has caused significant new vehicle supply disruption – Gives cause for concern over the coming months for new vehicle sales and profitability. Continuing to invest in Used Cars and expects underlying PBT for 2018 to be £50m.

I estimate the above to be about a 10% – 15% miss and will remain Neutral here and on the sector in general for now.

26-Oct-2018 – 26.5p – £371.7m – PER 7.6

Interim Management Statement – Expecting FY PBT circa £50m.

Doesn’t seem to be much more in this update than the one issued last week – Still looks like anything from a 5% – 10% or so miss based on some forecasts and a 20%+ miss based on others. I remain Neutral (at best).

12-Mar-2019 – 26.4p – £368.8m – PER 9

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue is down (-1.3%), Underlying PBT is down about -20% and Net Debt remains around the £125m level.

I cannot get interested here at present.

17-Apr-2019 – 25p – £350m – PER 8.9

Interim Management Statement For The 3 Months To End March 2019 – Revenue up slightly, margins down, made a Underlying LBT of -£2.8m (£10m lower than expectations) – Operational review in progress.

Still cannot get interested here (or in the sector in general) yet.

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