Numis (NUM)

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6-Dec-2017 – 307.75p – £329.2m – PER 14.0

Preliminary Results For The 6 Months To End September 2017 – The kind of update I would expect from this company – Revenue, PBT and EPS all up 16%+ with record share repurchasing of £22.9m. The Dividend is flat at 12p (a well covered yield of 4% or so). Pipeline is strong and trading has started well heading into 2018.

Still like the look of this company, nice all round growth – Kicking myself again for not getting in earlier in the year and it remains on my Watchlist.

Subsequently revised Watchlist price, 310p.

6-Feb-2018 – 326p – £351.8m – PER 11.9

Trading Update For The Period From 1 October 2017 – “A very strong start to the year, with revenues significantly ahead of the comparable period last year” and the current pipeline is promising although conversion will of course be dependent on favourable market conditions.

Still like this, it remains on my Watchlist, 310p.

29-Mar-2018 – 359.5p – £386.0m – PER 13.0

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End March 2018 – Bullish but not as bullish as previous, H1 expected to be significantly ahead of H1 last year but below the impressive previous 6 months.Strong near term pipeline of opportunities.

Had my eye on this one for a while and it’s on my Watchlist at 310p, I think I’ll just leave it there for now.

4-May-2018 – 410p – £439.2m – PER 14.8

Results For The 6 Months To End March 2018 – Crazy stuff! Income up 38% to £74.5m (2017: £53.8m) and PBT up 86% to £19.5m (2017: £10.5m) and there’s Cash balances of £82.5m (2017: £71.2m). Look forward to H2 with confidence.

Remains on my Watchlist at 310p and kicking myself for the many times I could have got in on the breakout to new highs here – 3 or 4 times this past 12 months. May well consider paying up, it not, raise my Watchlist price to 380p.

Subsequent Note: Paid up here this morning – Now Long.

Subsequent note: Soon after I decided to actually get out here with a small loss. Just decided I had made a mistake getting involved in a company with “lumpy” revenue.

28-Sep-2018 – 374p – £396.6m – PER 13.7

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End September 2018 – FY Revenue up 3% – Many things blamed but basically Profits will be lower this year (than last year).

I bought into this after a great set of interims at the beginning of May but sold out within the same month. The reasons, 2 fold I suppose – The results had little impact on the subsequent price action and also, I decided that the Revenue was too “lumpy” (reliant on big contract wins). Today I also note that forecast Revenue growth for the next 2 years is <10% per annum and EPS growth <5% per annum – On a PER of 15 or so I would expect more (unless there’s more hope for “lumpy” wins than I have). I remain Neutral.

5-Dec-2018 – 277p – £288.8m – PER 10.6

Preliminary Results For The 12 Months To End September 2018 – Revenue up 4.6%, Headcount up, PBT down -17.4%, EPS down 8.4% (25.1p from 27.4p).

I sold out here after waking up to the “lumpy” (reliant on big contract wins) Revenue aspect. It’s unlikely I will be looking to re-invest again, especially on falling Profits and EPS.

5-Feb-2019 – 273p – £292.2m – PER 11.9

Trading Update (First 4 Months Of The Year) – Challenging seems to be the key here.

Still avoiding “lumpy” (reliant on big contract wins) opportunities at present – Especially in challenging environments!

29-Mar-2019 – 255p – £271m – PER 11.1

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End March 2019 – Revenue expected to be -26% lower than last year – Challenging but pipeline stronger in recent weeks.

Too “lumpy” for me to get involved here again at present, possibly ever!

3-May-2019 – 265p – £282m – PER 11.5

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End March 2019 – Challenging market backdrop, Revenues down -24% (LFL but 3% higher than 2018 H2), the Dividend is maintained at 5.5p (also £7.5m of share buy-backs in past 6 months).

Remains too “lumpy” for me to invest in – For this reason I am going to put this on my Avoid list and cease coverage as I cannot see myself ever investing here in the future.

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