MPAC (MPAC)

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622
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Formally Molins – The global packaging solutions group

6-Mar-2018 – 182p – £36.7m – PER 17.4

Final Results For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Previously Molins. “Excellent progress on the Group’s strategic initiatives”, Order book 35% higher than at the start of 2017, Sales from continuing activities of £53.4m (2016: £41.5m), statutory Profit After Tax of £1.6m (2016: £0.6m loss), Underlying EPS of 4.2p (2016: loss of 6.0p), Net cash of £29.4m (2016: £0.8m), there will not be a final dividend.

Those who bought into the recovery here are up 3x in 12 months. Perhaps fairly priced here now?

19-Apr-2018 – 224p – £45.2m – PER 19.6

AGM Statement And Board Change – Q1 ahead of last year and in-line – CEO is stepping down, replacement confirmed.

Probably fairly priced for me, I’m Neutral.

Subsequent Note: Bought in here on the 12th July after a price retracement (to 195p) – Been watching a while after reading a broker note on Research Tree which forecasts great EPS growth for the next 4 years, starting with 2018, of 9.9, 14.1, 18.2 and 22.9 (2021) – And, Net Debt here is about £30m.

18-Jul-2018 – 218.5p – £44.1m – PER 17.5

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – FY Revenue to be in-line, FY Profits to be lower by £1.2m (ouch!) – Reckon that’s a 30%+ miss!

Having recently bought in here I will monitor the reaction this morning – Great broker forecasts (EPS growth for the next 4 years, starting with 2018, of 9.9, 14.1, 18.2 and 22.9 (2021)) issued just 2 months ago! Hey Ho!

Subsequent Note: Sold out here on 19-Jul-2018 based on the Trading update the previous day – Wasn’t hurt as bad as I could have been in the end, circa -20% or so.

6-Sep-2018 – 119p – £24.0m – PER 12.8

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – Statutory loss before tax of £0.6m (2017: £0.2m).  Basic loss per share of 3.9p (2017: earnings of 4.3p).

Hard to trust here again especially after broker forecasts 2 months old were blown out of the water not long back. I can’t be anything more than Neutral at present.

7-Jan-2019 – 109p – £22m – PER 9.73

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – “Sales and profit before tax are expected to be in line with market expectations (subject to year end audit), supported by a strong closing order book which will provide a platform for continued growth in 2019”.

After being burnt here previously I would prefer to wait and see the actuals – That’s what I will do.

5-Mar-2019 – 135p – £27.2m – PER 12.1

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue up 9%, Underlying PBT and EPS up 15% or so, but a Statutory Loss. Order book up 16% and group “back on track”.

There’s just not enough here to make me a Buyer again just yet, seems to be a lot of smoke and mirrors in this report.

1-May-2019 – 131p – £27m – PER 9.2

Trading Update And Acquisition – Trading this year is in-line with the Order book significantly above last year. Bought Lambert for £15m in Cash, expected to be “materially earnings enhancing” – Expects FY to be in-line.

Becomes a little more interesting – Will keep an eye out for Broker updates here.

11-Jun-2019 – 162p – £33m – PER 7.4

Pension Scheme Update – Deficit reduced from £69.m to £35.2m, expects to be eliminated in 2024 instead of 2029.

This is quite interesting and will keep an eye out for Broker updates here.

16-Jul-2019 – 180p – £35m – PER 8

Results For The 6 Months To End June 2019 – Trading is ahead of the Board’s and market expectations, FY Profit to be significantly above current market expectations.

Will be keeping an eye out for an update on the £400m (last time I checked) pension deficit as this is an encouraging update.

5-Sep-2019 – 202p – £41m – PER 9.1

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2019 – Revenue up 62% to £45.8m (£28.2m), Underlying PBT of £4.5m (£0) with Net Cash at £9.6m (£27m). FY PBT to be significantly above current market expectations.

Still quite like this and remain tempted here.

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