Monthly Recap – May 2019

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Monthly Recap Image May 2019

April Buys And Sells…

As always, this is a recap of my trading activity from the previous month.

Note: Most of my trading activity is a based on the analysis from my Parity PEG Price Reports.

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Each month I analyse at least 20 stocks in a Monthly Parity PEG Price Report. The report usually includes coverage of any stocks I have traded (bought or sold) that month – Those detailed here.

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There’s been 3 purchases and 1 sale (unusually, the sale being in one of the stocks purchased) this month, in order of execution…

On the 2nd April after what appeared to be decent results I noticed an updated Broker note from Cenkos (via Research Tree) for TP Group (TPG). I updated my Parity PEG Price Report (view it here) and noticed that although on a PER of 20, EPS is forecast to grow 50%+ in 2019E and almost 25% in 2020E. My analysis indicated a fair value price 100% above the current market price. And, this was without taking into account the Net Cash (about 40% of the current Market Cap). I just had to buy some!

Having made a profit of 6% in Filta Group (FLTA) last year I decided to buy back in here on the 3rd April, knowing results were due soon. On the 15th April those results came in and although they looked reasonable enough I just could not, for some reason, reconcile the EPS figures. After reviewing an updated Broker note (again from Cenkos and again via Research Tree) on the same day I calculated a 2 Year fair value price around the 250p level. This and my confusion over the EPS calculations gave me enough reason to get out, even after such a short period of time (sometimes it just happens this way). Coincidentally, my loss here was -6% which means that in the space of 2 weeks I gave up the 6% gain I made here last year.

On the same day, the 15th April, Frontier IP (FIPP) popped up on my Tech Screen so I decided to populate my Parity PEG Price Report (view it here), I took the data straight from Stockopedia. Although EPS dipped in 2017A and again in 2018A I took comfort from the forecast rise of almost 100% to a new all time EPS high in 2019E. The EPS is forecast to rise again the following year, by 30% or so. On a PER of 20 or so, Net Cash and momentum I decided to buy in.

Buy Date Stock Code Buy Price Sell Price Sell Date % Movement
2-Apr-19 TPG 6.21      
3-Apr-19 FLTA 237.00 223.60 15-Apr-19 -6%
15-Apr-19 FIPP 85.00      

I am now at about 20% in Cash.

Example Parity PEG Price Report – For T Clarke (CTO)

CTO-PPPR


For the reasoning behind the Parity PEG Price Report and access to 20 of them every month (including most or all of those I have traded) – You can find details here.

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