Macfarlane (MACF)

Macfarlane MACF Logo

The company is engaged in designing, manufacturing and distribution of packaging products.

16-Nov-2017 – 74p – £116.6m – PER 10.9

Interim Management Statement For The Period 30 June 2017 to 31 October 2017 – “Board remains confident that full year expectations will be met”.

Always quite fancied this around the 60p mark with a, say, 50p Stop. There’s quite a lot to like, rising Revenues, Profits, EPS, a ROCE of 15%, a decent well covered 3% Dividend. Any downside is that 20% of Mkt Cap Net Debt but the ROCE of 15% means that’s less scary to me.  Based on the fact it’s trebled in the past 5 years and it’s on a PER of 10 I wonder why I am not involved here from the 60p area (I’ve had my chances). This is still on my Watchlist at 60p but I am thinking, on a lowly PER of 10.9, it may well be worth raising the bar here.

Subsequent Note: The Pension Deficit is about £13m (10% or so of Mkt Cap) which seems manageable enough.

22-Feb-2018 – 86p – £132.6m – PER 12.2

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Another year of growth in-line with market expectations – Revenue up 9% to £196.0m, (2016: £179.8m) and PBT up 19% to £9.3m (2016: £7.8m). FY Dividend will be up 8% on last year. Debt down to £14.3m (£15.3m last time), Pension Deficit down to £11.8m (£14.5m last time). Confident of further progress in 2018.

I am long here and like these results enough to remain long.

23-Aug-2018 – 102p – £160.7m – PER 14.3

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – Revenue up 14%, PBT up 39%, the Interim Dividend is up 8% and Diluted EPS is up 19%. Net Debt is also down from £14.7m to £11.1m with the Pension Deficit also down from £11.8m to £9.4m. Expects to hit FY expectations.

I am long here and I like these results, I will continue to hold for now.

Subsequent note: I estimated a 100p 2 year price target here applying my usual analysis approach for Growth and Value at the time of the last update. I should have sold then but kept it on my potential Sell in a market downturn list – So, it was sold (late) in October.

20-Nov-2018 – 83.5p – £131.6m – PER 11.1

Trading Update For The Period 30th June To 31st October 2018 – Expects seasonal uplift in Q4 will see it meet FY expectations.

I sold out here recently and remain Neutral seeing 100p as perhaps fair value.

21-Feb-2019 – 93p – £146.5m – PER 12.2

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue up 11% (£217.3m), PBT up 17% (£10.9m) (9th year of Profit growth and current YTD is ahead of this), FY Dividend up 10%. The Pension Deficit has been reduced from £11.8m to £9.8m.

Sold out at around 100p here believing that to be about fair value – I retain that view at present.

22-Aug-2019 – 95p – £150m – PER 11.5

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2019 – Revenue up 5.4%, PBT up 8.7%,Interim Dividend up 6.2%, Diluted EPS up 9.9% with Net Debt up from £13.2m to £15m (the Pension Deficit is down from £9.8m to £9m. Confident of meeting FY expectations (with increased H2 margins and normal Q4 seasonal uplift).

I mentioned last time that I sold out here at around 100p believing that to be about fair value – I retain that view at present, I also feel the notes on FY expectations are, perhaps, a little over cautionary.

PPPR Session Banner