Lookers (LOOK)

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One of the leading UK motor retail and aftersales service groups.

9-Nov-2017 – 98p – £392.6m – PER 6.45

Trading Update For Q3 2017 – Up about 5% LFL it seems. Results for the year ending December 2017 should be in line with management’s current expectations.

Even on a PER of 6.45 I cannot bring myself to have faith in this or any other Auto Dealer at present. I am guessing there will soon be a “blood on the streets” opportunity here – I guess one of them has to first go to the wall.

7-Mar-2018 – 93.3p – £370.0m – PER 6.42

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue up 15% £4,696m (vs £4,088m), Adjusted PBT of £68.4m (vs £64.9m), Adjusted EPS up 1.3% (14.57p) and the Dividend is up 5%. Q1 expected to be in-line with management expectations. Share Buyback also announced, up to £10m.

At present, I am no more keen on buying this today than I was yesterday.

15-May-2018 – 99.2p – £391.5m – PER 7.06

Trading Update For The 3 Months To End March 2018 – Not sure what this is saying except the balance sheet is strong.

I remain Neutral.

15-Aug-2018 – 105p – £418.5m – PER 7.57

Unaudited Results For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – In-line with expectations for the FY.

I still remain sceptical towards this sector (even though it’s quite cheap at present) and therefore remain Neutral.

7-Nov-2018 – 98.1p – £384.5m – PER 6.91

Trading Update – FY expectations unchanged.

No change to my Neutral stance here.

13-Mar-2019 – 102p – £397m – PER 7.5

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue up 4%, Adjusted PBT down -2%, Adjusted EPS down -8.7% and the Total Dividend up 5%. Good start to the new year, in-line with expectations.

Still no change to my Neutral stance here.

31-May-2019 – 86p – £335m – PER 6.9

AGM Statement And Trading Statement For Q1 2019 – A positive performance.

I still remain on the sidelines here and in the sector as a whole at present.

14-Aug-2019 – 44p – £171m – PER 5

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2019 – Revenue up 2.7%, PBT down -39.7%, EPS down -29.5%, Interim Dividend held and the Balance Sheet is “strong” with Net Debt at £73.9m.

I still remain on the side-lines here and in the sector as a whole at present. Latest Broker note this morning indicates negative EPS growth (-30%) forecast for next year and a slight increase (1%) for the year after.

1-Nov-2019 – 50p – £193m – PER 6

Q3 Trading Update – Challenging environment continues, expects Underlying FY PBT to be circa £20m (latest forecast was circa £20m), Net Debt stands at £73.9m, freehold property valued at £312m (some will be sold though), 80p a share. The CEO and COO both go!

Doesn’t look great but could this be a “blood on the street” opportunity? Strip out the Net Debt and there’s still a value here of, what, 60p+ in freehold.

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