Avation (AVAP)

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491
Avation AVAP Logo

Engaged in leasing of aircraft.

I held here (for quite some time) but subsequently sold up here in May 2018 after a long overdue tidy up. My main reason for exit was the forecasts did not look so great, EPS +12% next year and -6% the year after.

2-Jul-2018 – 224.5p – £140.9m – PER 8.7

Interim Management Statement For The 12 Months To End June 2018 – In-line.

I remain Neutral here having sold out in May this year based on quite poor EPS forecasts of EPS +12% next year and -6% the year after.

6-Sep-2018 – 227.5p – £142.8m – PER 10.2

Final Results For The 12 Months To End June 2018 – Revenue up 16% to $109.1m, PBTdown 5.9% to $20.0m, EPS down 11% to 32.2c, the Dividend is up 21% YoY.

I remain Neutral here having sold out in May this year based on quite poor EPS forecasts (I believe these seem worse than those forecasts but don’t have time or the need to double check).

15-Nov-2018 – 254.5p – £160.2m – PER 9.69

AGM Statement And Trading Update For H1 Commencing July 2018 – Performing satisfactorily and expect to report a record H1 Profit. A second Interim Dividend of 2c will be paid.

I remain Neutral here having sold out in May this year based on quite poor EPS forecasts – I will be keeping an eye out now for potential upgrades and may well change my mind (as it’s done quite well since I sold out – Doh!)!

11-Feb-2019 – 263p – £170m – PER 9.8

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End December 2018 – Expects H1 Revenue to be $58m ($52.4m last time) with PBT and EPS to be double last year.

This seems impressive and I will be keeping an eye out for Broker notes here, on this ex-holding.

21-Feb-2019 – 287p – £185m – PER 10.7

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End December 2018 –Revenue up 11%, PBT up 95%, EPS up 97% and Asset value up 9%.

Still think this seems impressive, my only concern is that forecast EPS figures are quite poor (but this is not reflected in these H1 results). I will be keeping an eye out for Broker notes here, once again, on this ex-holding.

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