Alumasc (ALU)

Alumasc ALU Logo

A building products, systems and solutions company.

26-Oct-2017 – 172p – £62.9m

AGM Trading Statement For The Year Ending June 2018 – UK Revenue up 4% YTD, export sales are lower than the previous year. Still expecting to hit Full Year results.

Growth is not exactly enticing here but the ROCE is excellent (19.5%), the 4%+ Dividend is well covered and there’s £6.08m in Cash(10% of Market Cap) – On a PER of 7.86 looks decent enough value to me. Perhaps even better value if this update sends the price South a little!

1-Feb-2018 – 173.9p – £62.3m – PER 7.58

Results For The 6 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue is down (a few %) and PBT is also down(about 15%). Still expect outcome for the year in-line with previous expectations.

I am going to remain Neutral here.

14-Mar-2018 – 169.4p – £61.2m – PER 7.07

Trading Statement – Slower Q3, Revenues expected to be 5% below previous expectations and PBT 15% below.

Even with an impressive StockRank of 88, this is not a point at which I will be buying. I also believe there is also a Pension deficit of £30m or so here.

15-May-2018 – 140p – £50.6m – PER 6.07

Trading Statement – Ouch! FY Revenue to be down 7-9% with PBT down 15-20%.

I am staying away from this for now.

11-Sep-2018 – 125.5p – £45.3m – PER 7.07

FY Results For The 12 Months To End June 2018 – Revenues £98.4m (2016/17: £104.8m) due to severe weather in Q3 and the impact of the Carillion liquidation, Underlying PBT of £6.5m (2016/17: £9.0m), Basic EPS of 12.0p (2016/17: 18.3p), Net Debt of £4.8m (2017: Net Cash of £6.1m) reflecting investment in the acquisition of Wade International and the new Timloc factory.

I retain my “staying away from this for now” stance here.

25-Oct-2018 – 128.5p – £46.4m – PER 6.85

AGM Statement And Trading Update – FY expectations unchanged.

It’s not I don’t believe them but I retain my “staying away from this for now” stance here – Neutral.

31-Jan-2019 – 109p – £39m – PER 6

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue up 4%, Underlying PBT down from £3.5m to £2.5m, Order Book up 17% YoY, Basic EPS up from 6.9p to 8.4p, Interim Dividend unchanged. Net Debt is down from £4.8m to £0.3m. Expects a better H2.

Looks like value to be had here if forecasts are met, I am just not convinced they will be.

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