Alpha FX (AFX)

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Alpha FX AFX Logo

A founder led, UK-based corporate foreign exchange service provider.

16-Jan-2018 – 538p – £174.3m – PER 28.9

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue for the year is ahead of expectations and is expected to be £13.5m, Profit expected to be in-line.

No doubt this company can grow Revenue but can Profit and EPS grow at a rate to justify a PER of almost 30. I am not convinced at present.

21-Mar-2018 – 491.55p – £161.0m – PER 24.2

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2017 – Revenue up 60% to £13.5m (2016: £8.5m), Reported operating profit up 29% to £5.6m (2016: £4.4m), Reported EPS up 6% to 14.2p (2016: 13.4p) with a Final Dividend of 3.4p (FY 4.9p). Also launching an institutional division.

I like the expansion here, in Revenue. However, I am not yet convinced that Profit can keep up, I remain Neutral for now.

11-Jul-2018 – 530p – £176.6m – PER 23.3

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – Revenue up 50%+ and confident of earnings for the FY to be in-line with expectations.

This update provides some confidence that the great Revenue increases will be reflected in EPS. I am tempted here and if I don’t take a position soon it will go on my Watchlist.

Subsequent Note: Bought in here today, the in-line forecasts (on Stockopedia) are EPS growth of +35.2% (2018E) and +16.9% (2019E), the ROCE and Operating Margin are great plus there’s Cash.

5-Sep-2018 – 540p – £180.0m – PER 23.1

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2018 – Revenue up 55% to £9.7m (H1 2017: £6.3m), Underlying Operating Profit up 29% to £4.1m (H1 2017: £3.2m), Underlying Basic EPS up 14% to 9.8p (H1 2017: 8.6p) and up 46% to 9.2p (H1 2017: 6.3p) on a reported basis – The Interim Dividend is up 27% to 1.9p. Confident of FY at least in-line with expectations.

I hold here and based on these results I am happy to continue to do so for now.

Subsequent note: With my Growth and Value analysis showing 660p as a 2 year price target I decided that cutting at 600p+ was justified. Although I suspect upgrades may come through depending on how they use that Cash – Willing to change my mind here if this is the case  – Sold in October.

3-Jan-2019 – 565p – £206.5m – PER 22.4

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – FY to be ahead of market expectations.

Will be keeping an eye out for Broker notes here and may well be tempted to buy back in – I sold out here around 600p not so long back. It’s back on my Watchlist.

20-Mar-2019 – 640p – £234m – PER 26.4

Results For The 12 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue up 73%, Underlying PBT up 48% and EPS up 30% (22.7p – 21.8p reported), Final Dividend to be 4.6p. Q1 this year has started well.

An ex-holding, will keep an eye out for Broker notes as these results look pretty good. From memory I believe growth was meant to slow somewhat next year.

4-Sep-2019 – 735p – £273m – PER 34.3

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End June 2019 – Revenue up 60%, Underlying Operating Profit up 70%, Margin of 43% with EPS up from 9.2p to 12.8p, the Interim Dividend is up 16%. Comfortable with FY expectations.

Still looks overvalued to me although these interims seem impressive. Based on the latest Broker note this morning, in my opinion, looks overvalued on a 1 Year view and about fairly valued on a 2 Year view.

17-Oct-2019 – 850p – £315m – PER 33

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End September 2019 – Expects FY earnings to be ahead of current market expectations.

Still looks overvalued to me, but keen on seeing new broker notes here as this company continues to impress.

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